This course provides an advanced understanding in the assessment of dynamic risk for multi-hazards from hydro-meteorological and geological origin (e.g. landslides, floods, earthquakes). The main focus of the course is on the quantitative analysis of how risk changes, and how information on changing risk is used in decision making for disaster risk reduction. Risk can change gradually due to changing land use, population growth, and climate change. Risk can also change abruptly due to the occurrence of disaster events, that change the environmental and socioeconomic conditions completely. We look at various methods for risk assessment, ranging from qualitative methods based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation, through semi-quantitative methods based on exposure modelling, to quantitative risk assessment using hazard intensity, frequency, exposure and physical vulnerability, depending on the data availability and objectives of the study. In order to evaluate changing risk we need to analyse also how hazard changes, and how elements-at-risk (buildings, population, transportation infrastructure etc.) change in terms of location and vulnerability. In order to evaluate optimal risk reduction alternatives (structural and non-structural) risk reduction is calculated and costs-and benefits are evaluated. Stakeholder views regarding the various alternatives are also considered using a Spatial Multi-Criteria Approach.
This course is offered both as elective course for second-year MSc students, and as short course, for external course participants.